Congratulations to all the 84th Academy Award nominees! Some wonderful films appear on the 2011 Best Picture list -- with two of my favorites right on top. However, would it hurt the prestige of the Academy to add a comedy on its Best Picture list? Yes, I know that’s my usual complaint about the Oscars. But always the optimist, I couldn’t help hoping that Bridesmaids or The Muppets would sneak onto the Best Picture list to liven it up this year.

Still, on the plus side for nostalgia buffs like me, everything old is new again while watching many of the movies being honored at Oscar’s latest big party. Films like The Artist, Hugo, The Help, Midnight in Paris, War Horse, My Week with Marilyn, The Iron Lady, and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close look to the past for artistic and/or moral inspiration. The results may be uneven, but each has earned respect from the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences either for quality filmmaking or impressive performances -- which means it’s time to make my annual predictions about winners in the six key categories below. With fingers crossed as tightly as possible, here they are:          

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, “he Tree of Life, War Horse

My Prediction: The Artist and Hugo -- tie

My Preference: The Artist or Hugo

Comments: I always like to predict a tie, and this year I would be delighted if it happened in the Best Picture category. Both movies are love letters to filmmaking. The Artist, a charming tribute to silent movies, contains the best ending of the year. Hugo, the most effective 3-D movie I’ve seen, takes us to 1931 Paris for the adventures of a courageous boy who lives alone in the clock tower of a train station. I particularly enjoyed the section about one of cinema’s early pioneers, Georges Méliés, who is hiding there. How I would love to see the Academy recognize silent movies from the past as well as today’s best 3-D film technology by naming these two wonderful nominees as Best Picture! History could be made if this happens, for it would be the first time two movies tied for the top honor (although in 1929, the first year of Academy Awards presentations, two Oscars were given out -- one to Wings as Outstanding Picture and another to Sunrise as Best Artistic Production.) But I won’t be disappointed if The Descendants or War Horse takes home the Oscar. I found the former to be the most humanistic film of the year -- and the latter made me cry like a baby. In fact, I’m sending Steven Spielberg a bill for all the tissues he made me use while watching his stunning World War I epic about a very photogenic horse. Of course, The Help can’t be counted out. It’s one of the most popular movies of 2011, and the film delivers an important message about the evils of racism.              

Winner: The Artist

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)

My Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius

My Preference: Martin Scorsese

Comments: Although The Artist is quite an accomplishment for Hazanavicius, I’m hoping Scorsese picks up another Oscar to match the one he earned for The Departed. Academy members seem to love this veteran director, so my Hazanavicius prediction could be wrong – and that would be fine with me. Payne might be the spoiler, for he’s developed a huge following this year. And we can’t ignore Allen. Midnight in Paris is his best movie in years. Sadly, Malick’s offering plays more like a beautiful art installation than a film.

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius      

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Demián Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

My Prediction: George Clooney

My Preference: George Clooney

Comments: My biggest complaint about this category involves the omission of Ryan Gosling, who delivered the best male performance of the year in Drive. With Gosling missing, Clooney should take home his second Oscar (he earned a Best Supporting Oscar for Syriana). His acting in The Descendants as a husband and father without a clue ends up as his most impressive work since O Brother Where Art Thou? However, Clooney’s strongest competition comes from Dujardin as a proud silent film star and from Bichir as a father trying to improve conditions for his teenage son. Pitt pleased most of his fans as a daring baseball manager, but Oldman failed to convince me he was a master spy (probably because of my admiration for Alec Guinness in the TV version of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy).

Winner: Jean Dujardin

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

My Prediction: Viola Davis

My Preference: Viola Davis

Comments: Someone is missing here too. Tilda Swinton’s acting in We Need To Talk About Kevin surpassed that of all other actresses in 2011 – and her role as a grieving and guilt-laden mother was the most difficult one to play, in my opinion. But Davis gives a standout performance as the courageous domestic offering her assistance for a startling racial exposé in 1960s Mississippi. Williams makes us believe she’s Marilyn Monroe in a few magical moments, and Mara proves she’s a newcomer to watch even without a dragon tattoo. But Close’s appearance as a woman pretending to be a man is too distracting. Sorry to say the biggest disappointment here involves one of today’s most acclaimed actresses. Surprisingly, Streep’s performance seems too much like “acting” instead of “being” Margaret Thatcher. Still, Streep might win simply because of her wonderful past work. Remember, she holds the record for Oscar nominations (17) and has already won two of these golden statuettes, but the last one was 30 years ago for Sophie’s Choice.

Winner: Meryl Streep             

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)

My Prediction: Christopher Plummer

My Preference: Nick Nolte

Comments: Most nominees in this category gave worthy performances, but Plummer seems to be a shoe-in here for his appealing portrayal of an elderly widower who comes out of the closet while suffering from a terminal illness. He was nominated in the same category in 2009 for The Last Station, so Academy voters may decide to rectify his loss by giving him the nod this year. Still, I think Nolte, who received two previous Oscar nominations (The Prince of Tides and Affliction), stands out for his heartbreaking turn as the estranged alcoholic father of two sons who end up fighting each other in a mixed martial arts contest. Here’s hoping the third time is a charm for this fine actor. Branagh chewed the scenery a bit too much as Laurence Olivier; Hill displayed some low-key acting chops as a statistics genius; and Max von Sydow could surprise everyone by taking home the Oscar for his sensitive interpretation of a loving grandfather who doesn’t have to speak a word to earn our empathy.    

Winner: Christopher Plummer   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Bérénice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)

My Prediction: Octavia Spencer

My Preference: Bérénice Bejo

Comments: To me, Bejo stands out in this category for her enthusiastic portrayal of a rising star in “the talkies” who falls for a silent movie icon. With her big eyes, expressive face and energetic body language, this talented French actress needs no dialogue to let us know how her character feels. She’s a cinematic dynamo. Nevertheless, Spencer will probably win for her splendid performance as an outspoken, downtrodden maid. Chastain, also in the same movie (The Help), is a revelation as an outcast who marries into Mississippi society. McTeer succeeded in convincing us she was a man; and McCarthy made us laugh until it hurts. What a great group of nominees!

Winner: Octavia Spencer  

Adding to the nostalgic atmosphere at the 84^th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, Billy Crystal returns to host his NINTH televised Oscar show. Fans will not want to miss that, no matter who wins or loses.   

(Article published in The Pueblo Chieftain of February 26, 2012)

For the list of nominees and winners in all categories, please go to www.oscar.com.