Like many movie fans, Oscar has me under his spell this time of year. I can’t stop wondering about who the Academy Award winners will be, especially in the acting, directing and best picture categories. But this year, more than ever, I fear most of my preferred choices will not be called to the stage to accept golden statuettes. Read on to find out why.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich.      

My Prediction:  Brokeback Mountain

My Preference:  Crash

Comments:  Brokeback Mountain leads the pack with eight nominations, but I’m happy that my top movie of 2005, Crash, ended up with six of its own -- and in such important categories as Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, and Editing (plus Original Song). It’s not often a movie causes me to examine my own strengths and weaknesses, but Crash, with its compelling story about the good and bad in all of us, did. Still, the film with the most nominations usually wins Best Picture, so Brokeback Mountain is almost a sure thing in this category. However, don’t count out Steven Spielberg’s Munich. Academy voters love Spielberg and his movies. 

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:  Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain), Bennett Miller (Capote), Paul Haggis (Crash), George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck) Steven Spielberg (Munich).      

My Prediction:  Steven Spielberg

My Preference:  Paul Haggis

Comments:  As I mentioned above, Spielberg is much admired by Academy voters. Munich represents his seventh Oscar nomination for Best Director. And he’s won two (for Saving Private Ryan and Schindler’s List) plus the Irving Thalberg Award. It would be a miracle if Haggis wins, but I think he deserves the Oscar. Crash did more than hold my interest. It touched my soul. The spoiler here could be Ang Lee, whose groundbreaking Brokeback Mountain had such a profound effect on so many moviegoers.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote), Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow), Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain), Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line), David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck). 

My Prediction:  Philip Seymour Hoffman

My Preference:  Joaquin Phoenix

Comments: Hoffman is the front-runner here for his impersonation of Truman Capote. Unfortunately, I had trouble understanding the actor’s dialogue. That surprised me because I always understood what the real Capote was saying in interviews or appearances. Phoenix, on the other hand, nailed every word and song in Walk the Line. His memorable performance captured the true essence of the legendary Johnny Cash.     

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents), Felicity Huffman (Transamerica), Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice), Charlize Theron (North Country), Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line).

My Prediction:  Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Huffman (tie)

My Preference:  Reese Witherspoon

Comments:  Witherspoon oozes spunk and charm as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line. She imbues her performance with June’s upbeat yet no-nonsense attitude, and I believe she should win. But the Academy is notorious for rewarding actresses who de-glamorize themselves, and such is the case with Huffman in Transamerica. As a man who’s waiting for the final surgery to become a woman, Huffman gives a mannered but brave performance. A tie between Witherspoon and Huffman would not surprise me. Still, we shouldn’t overlook Dame Judi Dench. Remember when she won a supporting Oscar for  appearing only briefly in Shakespeare in Love? It’s probably not a good idea to underestimate Dench’s award potential.      

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: George Clooney (Syriana), Matt Dillon (Crash), Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man), Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain), William Hurt (A History of Violence).

My Prediction:  George Clooney    

My Preference:  William Hurt

Comments:  Although Clooney earned three 2005 Oscar nominations (Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor), this category seems his best bet for a win. I found Syriana too ambitious and complicated, but Clooney’s performance as a world-weary CIA operative involved in an assassination attempt in the Middle East has won considerable praise from critics. I realize that the sentimental favorite here seems to be Cinderella Man‘s Giamatti, who was snubbed last year for Sideways, but if I were voting, my choice would be Hurt. I still get chills thinking about the unforgettable mobster he played in A History of Violence.   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Amy Adams (Junebug), Catherine Keener (Capote), Frances McDormand (North Country), Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener), Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain).

My Prediction:  Rachel Weisz

My Preference: Amy Adams

Comments: All five of these nominees deserve recognition for their fine work. However, I think the race boils down to Weisz and Adams, with Weisz probably winning because she has a meatier role in a more prestigious film. Too bad Adams’ splendid work in Junebug hasn’t been seen by many people. Portraying one of the neediest young pregnant women ever presented on screen, Adams is poignant, amusing and completely convincing. I’ll celebrate big time if she wins!  

To find out who takes home the Oscars, watch ABC’s televised 78th Annual Academy Awards Ceremony (hosted for the first time by Jon Stewart) on Sunday, March 5, beginning at 5 p.m. PST.

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Article also appears in The Pueblo Chieftain of March 2, 2006.

NOTE ADDED ON MARCH 6, 2006. My predictions in the acting categories came true -- except there was no tie for Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon ended up the only winner, which makes me very happy because she deserved it the most. Happily, my preference for Best Picture (Crash) emerged as a surprise winner. Ang Lee earned the Best Director Oscar for Brokeback Mountain.

Click here for a list of winners in all 24 categories.